Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
